Is the text message becoming a thing of the past?

To most of us, it seems that everyone, everywhere is sending thousands of text messages every day these days. The text has become so popular in the last decade that the media have reported fears that it will have a negative effect on the English language and could even threaten human face to face interaction.  However, according to a recent report by Forbes, texts appear to be on the decline all around the world.

Tero Kuittinen, a senior analyst at M.G.I. Research, noticed that periods which in the past have brought in a high useage of texts, such as Christmas and New Year, have brought in much less in 2011 than usual. A significant fall can be noted even when compared to the same time last year, which hints that people are finding other ways to communicate to friends and family.

This decline of texts during holiday season appears to be a global trend. In Finland, prominent mobile carrier Sonera reported that 8.5 million text messages were sent on Christmas Eve of 2011, down 22% from 10.9 million sent on the same day in 2010. Australia also reported a 9% decrease, as did Hong Kong with a 14% drop in Christmas Day texts.

Industry experts believe the statistics are the result of users changing the way they communicate, rather than a fall in communication generally. iMessage, Whatsapp and Blackberry’s BBM are all big names in the messaging world and give users a free alternative. Social networks such as Twitter and Facebook are also likely contributors to a fall in SMS useage; giving users the opportunity to message everyone at once rather than sending out a repetitive message to several different recipients. This is therefore not only a more convenient way of communicating, but also a cheaper option too.

An interesting realisation from this research is how fast new technology can be embraced by the population and how easily such a popular way of communication can be replaced. It has been suggested that there is no longer any way of predicting how a product will be received, as so many have been launched into mainstream technology very quickly and without warning.

“It’s quite possible that the SMS erosion will hit AT&T and Verizon in 2012 or 2013,” Kuittinen said. “The fast fade of SMS usage in countries that were most obsessed with text-messaging tells us how difficult it is to project rates of decline of aging technologies – and how unfaithful consumers can be to services that they have loyally used for 15 years.”

However, at the moment at least, text messaging is in no danger of disappearing forever. According to a study published in December 2011, Pew Research Centre Global Attitudes Project, around 75% of mobile phone users in 21 countries said they still send texts.

But who is to know what will happen in the future? It is not beyond the realms to imagine that other platforms could one day render text messaging obsolete. The bigger question is perhaps, how long will SMS continue to survive?